The REALLY BIG ONE.

[Tunnelcat]

I'm posting this link for Duper, Grendel and CUDA, since I know you all guys reside in the Pacific Northwest. A very interesting treatise in the New Yorker magazine about subduction zone earthquakes and what's going to happen once the BIG ONE hits here and it's not going to be some cakewalk. California's quakes are pipsqueaks compared to what we're going to get hit with here sometime in the future. It's not an "if", but a "when". Me, I'm seriously thinking of re-roofing my house if I can scrape up the cash. Right now, it's covered in concrete roof tiles. Very heavy concrete roof tiles. My house will rack itself pretty bad if they're still up there during the next big quake. At least I'm not living on the valley floor with all that nice clay that likes to liquify when shaken.

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/ ... ly-big-one

[Duper]

*yawn*

I've seen this posted all over facebook for a week or so now. One. It's PURE speculation. All of us in the NW know about "the big one". There is no way they can substantiate the "when". .. that's like saying "you're going to die some day!"

...ya think? ;D

What they fail to mention is that there have been constant sizeable quakes off the coast of Oregon for over a decade. There are also microquakes nearly daily throughout the NW. This is pressure being release.

Now, if you want to talk damage. OHSU has built up a new campus on the river front in Portland over the last 10 years. It's very impressive and shiny. However. 5 years before they broke ground, a survey of the entire Portland downtown area was done on what kind of soil the city was sitting on and what would happen in the event of a major earthquake. That whole chunk of land from the Marcum bridge up to nearly John's Landing will LIQUIFY in the case of a 8.0 earthquake. Why would they do that? .. oh.. there's an underground parking garage there too.

I'm not going to freek over something that I can't change. It certainly is a good idea to have disaster preparedness kits in the house and all that. We took a large picture off the wall that hung over a bed after a rather large earthquake several years ago. Oh, that's another thing. We've had a number of 6.0 or better quakes over the last 20 years in the NW. There have been a could 8.0 or higher around here the last 200 years. So, I'll worry about the space rock that we won't see, until it punches a hole in our atmosphere the size of Australia.

[sdfgeoff]

In Christchurch we had a 6.3 and 7.4 - and our house has concrete roof tiles.
All over the city, chimneys fell down and crashed through roofs. Some concrete tiles slid down, but to my knowledge, never fell through ceilings. Some fell to the ground and cracked, others just got stuck in the gutter, and were put back within a few days. Our tiles are tied to the roof with steel wire, so we had no problems at all.
The only difference concrete tiles make is to slightly increase chance of ... the whole house collapsing. But if you have the inclination, corrugated iron won't hurt.

Liquifaction was the biggest house killer. It moved piles, cracked floors, made lumps a meter tall....

[Sirius]

Main thing is for any new construction to take into account that a magnitude 9 earthquake a couple hundred miles away is at least possible... the campus Duper just described is a great example of what not to do.

[Tunnelcat]

*yawn*

I've seen this posted all over facebook for a week or so now. One. It's PURE speculation. All of us in the NW know about "the big one". There is no way they can substantiate the "when". .. that's like saying "you're going to die some day!"

...ya think? ;D

What they fail to mention is that there have been constant sizeable quakes off the coast of Oregon for over a decade. There are also microquakes nearly daily throughout the NW. This is pressure being release.

Now, if you want to talk damage. OHSU has built up a new campus on the river front in Portland over the last 10 years. It's very impressive and shiny. However. 5 years before they broke ground, a survey of the entire Portland downtown area was done on what kind of soil the city was sitting on and what would happen in the event of a major earthquake. That whole chunk of land from the Marcum bridge up to nearly John's Landing will LIQUIFY in the case of a 8.0 earthquake. Why would they do that? .. oh.. there's an underground parking garage there too.

I'm not going to freek over something that I can't change. It certainly is a good idea to have disaster preparedness kits in the house and all that. We took a large picture off the wall that hung over a bed after a rather large earthquake several years ago. Oh, that's another thing. We've had a number of 6.0 or better quakes over the last 20 years in the NW. There have been a could 8.0 or higher around here the last 200 years. So, I'll worry about the space rock that we won't see, until it punches a hole in our atmosphere the size of Australia.

I'm not going to freak out about it either. You can't worry about something that you can't see coming. But it is prudent to take precautions, like bolting down heavy bookcases, pictures and large mirrors and keeping stocks of non-perishable food and water. What I worry about in my case, are those concrete tiles on my roof, which are quite heavy. They won't necessarily fall off the roof, they are nailed down, but their combined weight on the highest part of my house worries me. The mass of the roof would tend to stay still while the foundation would be moving with the earth. If there happened to be snow up there, it would be even heavier. I see major damage, even collapse, if a quake is violent enough. Something lighter is the way to go. Besides, metal roofs, if kept free of debris, won't grow moss on them like my concrete tiles do.

As for OHSU, someone didn't think through the decision to buy the old shipyard property and use them for new hospital buildings, but there aren't a whole lot of options in the area. In fact, most of Portland is built on that stuff near the river. It's all old Missoula Flood sediment and Willamette River sediment. All that wet clay will liquify in a large quake. The only solid rock is on the high hills and even then, some of that is pretty weathered and ready to slide. The floods even went as high as 300 feet clear down in Corvallis. Glad I live on the upside of the Corvallis Fault. It's solid rock. I know because they had a hell of a time digging my basement. The whole area is a mix of vesicular basalt and gabbro.

http://www.oregonlive.com/environment/i ... issou.html

[Duper]

Some of the flood plain on that map is also due to the Bonneville dam breaking a 1000 years ago or so.
Yeah, Corvalis is a pretty solid area. Great map!

[Tunnelcat]

Some of the flood plain on that map is also due to the Bonneville dam breaking a 1000 years ago or so.
Yeah, Corvalis is a pretty solid area. Great map!

Here's a scary video of liquifaction occuring in Japan. The sidewalk moving separately from the paver stone area is just plain creepy. So is the noise it makes, like a slithering animal. Then the water starts oozing up through the paver stones.

[Duper]

Wow. I had seen a couple of others, but not that one. One of the vids I saw last year was from an American that explained that the area he was in (and filming) was all fill. They had filled in part of a bay to make more land. I was wondering if that was the case here or that they were just that close to a coast line.

[Tunnelcat]

I don't know. Many areas of Japan are built on fill anyway because they're always looking for new land and having to create it instead. I did find a video of what happens with tall buildings during a large quake. All I can say is, I wouldn't want to be on the top floor taking that ride. Nor would I want to be in a tall building that was built on fill either. It's one thing to sway back and forth and another to topple over entirely.

[Top Gun]

It may look scary, but that's exactly what those buildings were designed to safely do. Japan generally has its stuff together when it comes to modern earthquake-proof (or as "proof" as one can reasonably get) construction techniques. And no large skyscraper could ever be built entirely on fill: you're always going to need to have supports sunk into the bedrock.

Really, if you're ever caught in an earthquake, the best places to be would be a wood-frame house or a modern steel-frame construction. But anything with masonry...get the hell out, and fast.

[Tunnelcat]

It may look scary, but that's exactly what those buildings were designed to safely do. Japan generally has its stuff together when it comes to modern earthquake-proof (or as "proof" as one can reasonably get) construction techniques. And no large skyscraper could ever be built entirely on fill: you're always going to need to have supports sunk into the bedrock.

Really, if you're ever caught in an earthquake, the best places to be would be a wood-frame house or a modern steel-frame construction. But anything with masonry...get the hell out, and fast.

Yeah, but I get seasick real easy. People below might have to dodge my liquid bombs I hurl out the windows. You know, those people who invariably run out into the street during a quake and get hit with falling debris?

I actually tried to get out of the third floor of a wooden building during a 5.5 quake in California. It was hard to walk let alone run. The P wave hit first, which felt like a truck hitting the building. I had time to say: "What was that?" Then a few seconds later, the building starting swinging as the L waves came through. I held on instead, then got out once the earth quit moving.

[Duper]

Hey TC, here is a link to a paper/video that hypothesizes how the sun influences/causes large earthquakes.

https://youtu.be/zrqahnOx4CM

The first 10 minutes or so is about what you'll need to watch. The rest is pretty much Q&A.

Oh, another preparedness measure to take is to make sure that if you have a gas Anything (water heater, stove, etc.) that they are secured, on a solid or secure base and have good flex hose connecting them. Check the meter that is plumbed into the house as well.
Great input about masonry buildings too guys. *shudder*

[Tunnelcat]

Interesting theory. Thanks for sharing it. Something else to have to worry about that may trigger a big quake. At least we don't have deep fracking going on here.

By the way, I lived in California for 4 years. I quickly learned all about strapping down the water heater and bolting our bookcases to the wall. We went through a whole series of 5.0 quakes while we lived there (all that activity was happening right before the big Loma Prieta quake and we had moved out of state 6 weeks before that one hit, thank God) and I can tell you from experience that having our heavy bookcases bolted to the wall saved us some serious grief and damage, even in a 5.0. The water heater was already strapped down in the condo we lived in, so that wasn't an issue. We also bought ourselves a gas shutoff wrench and I still have it in an accessible place now. The other item is a set of side cutters to cut off the power meter lock so the meter can be pulled. Don't want shorted wiring setting off a fire either. So when we moved to Oregon, first thing I did was install some heavy duty hardware to hold down our present gas water heater in the basement. I've been lazy on the bookcases however. Need to get to that real soon. Same with the kitchen cabinet and pantry doors. No use having that stuff fall all over the place if the Big One hits.

[Vander]

I was living in Mountain View during the Loma Prieta quake. (30mi or so) That was some serious sh!t. I vividly remember watching the World Series pre-game when the signal cut out. A couple seconds later all hell broke loose. Now, 25 years later, whenever I'm watching TV and the signal cuts out, the first thing that comes to mind is an earthquake hitting.

[Descer]

how the sun influences/causes large earthquakes.

It's more like to gtavity. Sun's alsoresponsible for tides, but because 'o distance, smaller than moon. Like Jupiter affects to Io.

Why there haven't been any sights from Venus, may 'cause the observers's weren'tt here in right moment.

[Tunnelcat]

I was living in Mountain View during the Loma Prieta quake. (30mi or so) That was some serious sh!t. I vividly remember watching the World Series pre-game when the signal cut out. A couple seconds later all hell broke loose. Now, 25 years later, whenever I'm watching TV and the signal cuts out, the first thing that comes to mind is an earthquake hitting.

We moved out of Sunnyvale a month and half before it hit. Part of me would've liked to have experienced it, the other part of me says, thank God I missed it. One of the condo units in my complex actually had an entire end unit separate from the main building. Those many 5.0's and 4.0's that hit in the couple of years before the 7.0 were exiting enough. The precursor quakes got so frequent that I even hung up a pendulum in a third floor room and had the point of it sitting slightly in a dish of smooth sand. I could then quickly tell which fault let go during any particular quake (either the Calaveras, Hayward or San Andreas faults) by the direction of marks in the sand relative to the compass.

[Duper]

how the sun influences/causes large earthquakes.

It's more like to gtavity. Sun's alsoresponsible for tides, but because 'o distance, smaller than moon. Like Jupiter affects to Io.

Why there haven't been any sights from Venus, may 'cause the observers's weren'tt here in right moment.

Actually, no Descer, I'm talking about forces a lot more prevalent and observable than gravity. Venus, is undergoing some crazy weather changes right now as are a number of planets in our system. It really has nothing to do with gravity. More like the sun's magnetosphere reducing in strength which happens in cycles of about 200 years (iirc)

http://spaceweathernews.com/SPF/

Cheers!
This is just a quick 2 minute vid that gives an overview of some of the effects the sun has on us. Most won't be anything new to you.
[youtube]qu5kOwcjvuE[/youtube]

[woodchip]

The really big one is when the Yellowstone Caldera blows its lid.

[Descer]

Can still be coinsidence. Decades o' studies required.

[sigma]

It's not nature earthquakes you have there. Raw materials companies are blazing a new mines for production of shale oil using underground mini-nuclear explosions. Map of natural seismic activity confirms this. Apparently, most earthquakes in the U.S. have no relation to helio and geomagnetic weather of the Sun and Earth. http://priroda.inc.ru/pogoda/seismo2.html

[Tunnelcat]

It's not being done today Sigma. Three tests were done in the 1960's under Project Mandrel which was done under the umbrella of Operation Plowshare, our government's attempt to find peacetime uses for nukes. There were 2 bombs detonated in Colorado, one called "Rulison" and the other called "Rio Blanco". The third, "Gasbuggy", was tried in New Mexico. They quickly figured out that the natural gas and oil products they recovered were contaminated with radioactive Tritium, rendering it unfit for household or commercial use. That's why the attempts at using nukes for oil and gas exploration ultimately failed, radioactive contamination of the products they wanted to drill for and sell.

Today though, some oil companies are wanting to drill for oil and gas, near the old blast sites. Our government is worried about accidental recovery of old contaminated oil and natural gas from those old sites and is actively trying to keep out new oil and gas exploration. Too bad we ruined those underground oil and gas rich areas with nukes and radiation in the first place. Can't use it now.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2010/07/22/le ... -gas-rush/

As for current earthquakes, plain old fracking is doing a pretty good job at setting off earthquakes. Just ask people in Oklahoma.

http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencen ... story.html

[sigma]

Maybe that military trials or something else. In Nevada, the military exploded 928 nuclear devices, 828 of which are underground. Don't need to have much imagination to understand how changed tectonic framework of the United States. Not to mention the fact that the half-life of radioactive elements even after a single nuclear explosion is 5-7 thousand years. At least, world map of natural seismic activity shows that in the USA there are almost no natural earthquakes. So, earthquakes occur for any other reason.

[Tunnelcat]

In the center of our country, the Midwest, the newest swarms of smaller quakes are definitely from oil company hydraulic fracking. On the west coast, it's definitely tectonic plate movement that's causing the earthquakes. I know because I used to live next to the big crack in San Fransisco, California and it moved constantly. But in the Midwest of the U.S., there have been some big historic quakes in the past, long before any nuclear testing, pre-1940's, so some form of earth forces were responsible, either crustal plate movement or magma movement upward from the mantle.

That's not counting outside forces from the sun, gravitational effects from other planets in our solar system, asteroid impacts or even our own earth's magnetic shifts or pole reversals. The rock that makes up the earth's crust is floating on the fluid rock rock of the mantle after all. We're all sitting on a bunch of big, floating rock boats that occasionally spring volcanic leaks.

Like woodchip noted, let's all hope that the Yellowstone Caldera doesn't spring a huge leak. Mount Saint Helens in 1980 was bad enough. I'm glad the wind was blowing to the northeast when it happened, or Portland would've been buried in ash.

http://www.geo.mtu.edu/UPSeis/area.html

[sigma]

I, in turn, want to hope that here will not drop another huge meteorite. I don't know why, but the meteorites very love to fall specifically in Russia.

[Duper]

Seriously Sigma...what's up with that???? You guys are hogging all the space rocks!! no fair!

I for one, TC, am not worried about Yellowstone. Given that it's constantly letting off gases and the like, very little pressure is building. Also, given its size, I doubt the whole thing would go at once. If it does, I'll be a bit happier that I live on the west coast.
Too many things this earth can do that we can't control. If you escape earthquakes, you throw yourself into an area that gets hammered with storms and I'll take my chances with earthquakes over tornadoes any day!



Descer, I'm going to disagree with you on that bud. I think that another 5 to 10 years of consistent data tracking will be plenty. There is new instrumentation in orbit tracking things like our magnetic field and gravity mapping. There is sufficient evidence to form a solid hypothesis and further investigation is merited. But actual "proof"? ermm. it could be achieved within 10 years max if the funds were dumped into it, but we both know how well THAT would go. ;P

[sigma]

Not fair that the US dollar is the main reserve currency. This monopoly a long time ago should be changed

[Tunnelcat]

Seriously Sigma...what's up with that???? You guys are hogging all the space rocks!! no fair!

We had a very large meteorite that was found in the Willamette Valley in the early 1900's in West Linn, but since there was no impact crater, they think it was rafted down in ice from Canada and plopped down into the Willamette Valley during the Missoula Floods, so I can't say it actually hit here. It's pretty cool looking for an iron meteorite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willamette_Meteorite

I for one, TC, am not worried about Yellowstone. Given that it's constantly letting off gases and the like, very little pressure is building. Also, given its size, I doubt the whole thing would go at once. If it does, I'll be a bit happier that I live on the west coast.
Too many things this earth can do that we can't control. If you escape earthquakes, you throw yourself into an area that gets hammered with storms and I'll take my chances with earthquakes over tornadoes any day!

Ya know, after having lived in Colorado for 4 years and having to endure the large hail, tornadoes, flash floods and lightning, I'll take earthquakes any day too. I'm sure Foil would disagree, but I really hated those violent thunderstorms along the Front Range and the quakes in California didn't bother me nearly as much.

As for Yellowstone, if it decided to blow, it is technically still an active volcano sitting over an active hot spot in the mantle, it would affect almost the entire U.S. and the global climate as well. It does have a periodicity to it's eruptions too and it's slightly overdue.

"Explosions of this magnitude "happen about every 600,000 years at Yellowstone," says Chuck Wicks of the U.S. Geological Survey, who has studied the possibilities in separate work. "And it's been about 620,000 years since the last super explosive eruption there."

http://www.livescience.com/200-super-vo ... -warn.html

[Duper]

OOOooo cools stuff! Thanks TC!

[sigma]

WOW! This meteorite should leave a good meteor crater. Interestingly, how scientists have determined that the age of this meteorite roughly a billion years.
It is good that Yellowstone National Park is well enough protected from weather cataclysms. Because in 2007 as a result of the typhoon huge mudslide completely destroyed the Valley of Geysers in the Kronotsky Reserve in Kamchatka. Thank God that this unique valley itself could recover in 2013. Although Putin was not allowed to increase the quota for tourists, despite numerous requests of tourist companies. It's a pity. It is very beautiful.

A list of known large meteorites Russia. Especially lucky Kasimovsky District, where in 2003 fell 550 meteorites.

[Tunnelcat]

WOW! This meteorite should leave a good meteor crater. Interestingly, how scientists have determined that the age of this meteorite roughly a billion years.

They think it came down in the thick ice fields of Canada during the last ice age and was transported down to Oregon encased in an ice chunk during the great Missoula Floods. That's why there is no visible crater in Oregon. It didn't hit here.

[sigma]

It seems that this meteorite has come a long way to go before he ended up in the Museum of Natural History... When I look at him, I feel that I look into eternity.

[Tunnelcat]

According to a history book about Lake Oswego and the Oregon Iron and Steel Company, all I know is that Oregonians were a little mad that our meteorite ended up being sold to some stupid East Coast museum. We Oregonians and the Native Americans want it back on our soil. It's our heritage, and besides, we found it first, so finders keepers.

[sigma]

Yes, to keep the heritage is very important. F*cking money. Despite the fact that here it is very likely that you can get, to put it mildly, a lot of trouble if you try to buy unique things. Your chances 50Х50. Although for example on the ordinary market in Siberia you can easily buy a real meteorite for ridiculous money.

[Duper]

Here is some interesting evidence. It shows why having "average" people with a heart for research make a difference in new ideas. It also shows how a serious solar storm could wreak serious havoc these days.

I fast forwarded to that part.

https://youtu.be/yAsOwktjbBg?t=2m44s

[Tunnelcat]

As to the first part of the video referring to the computer outage on the East Coast, I heard it was a software update that glitched the system. I think software weenies screw up our computers far more than solar events do right now, at least for the moment.

But what's more worrying is if we get socked with a combo jolt by mother nature. Say the sun releases a massive solar event during a time period when our earth's magnetic field decides to start a reversing-it's-poles process? It's overdue by the way and could start happening at any time. Toasted electronics anyone?