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Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 1:33 pm
by Kilarin
I think what is safe to say about climate change is that BOTH sides have a political agenda and are unwilling to consider any possibility that the other side may have some points.

I've heard just as much blind "faith" about climate change from folks on the left who have never actually researched the issue as I do from folks on the right.

Once any scientific topic gets all tied up with politics it becomes very difficult for a layman to keep track of what is valid research and what is not. Not impossible mind you, just a lot more difficult.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:29 pm
by flip
The bible always sets the parameters correctly and always leads you in the direction of truth. That's all I'm saying.
"...•The major part of the Moon's libration in latitude is due to the inclination of the Moon's spin axis relative to the plane of of its orbit. This amounts to a variation of about ±6½° in the latitude of the observed center point (Roncoli, 2005, puts the maximum at 6.87°).
•The major part of the Moon's libration in longitude is due to its spinning like a top at constant velocity (relative to the stars), yet travelling in an elliptical orbit (which causes our angle of viewing it to change at a varying speed). The result is that the apparent center point varies by around ±8° in longitude (Roncoli, 2005, puts the maximum at 8.16°).
•In addition to these basic rocking motions, an observer's exact location on Earth will can change his perspective. An observer in the Earth's far north sees more of the Moon's northern parts; while one observing the Moon at moonrise sees more of the leading limb. This affect alters the coordinates of the apparent center by up to about ±1°. These true librations, as actually seen by the observer, are called the topocentric librations (as opposed to the geocentric librations -- which are computed for an imaginary observer at the Earth's center, and, although frequently tabulated in Almanacs, seldom apply to any real observer).
•Any variation beyond that which can be attributed to an idealized spinning top (such as would be observed if the Moon's spin rate about its axis were not perfectly constant) is categorized as a physical libration.
•The Moon's librations tend to make the observed center point wander around the "official" center in a quasi-circular or elliptical pattern. It would be rare, indeed, for the point of zero longitude and latitude (the "mean center") to actually be observed in the center, and even then, it would be seen so only for a single observer.
•The librations in longitude and latitude are frequently abbreviated by the letters "l" and "b" although this convention is by no means universal. "L" and "B" were probably originally abbreviations for the German words "länge" (longitude) and "breite" (latitude). On diagrams, and in mathematical discussions they are sometimes replaced by the Greek letters lambda and beta, although again, this is not a universal convention.
•The magnitudes of the librations are traditionally stated as +/- numbers (rather than N-S/E-W). As indicated in the definition, these are the selenographic coordinates of the Moon's apparent center. In longitude ("l"), positive values are in the Mare Crisium direction. In latitude ("b"), they are in the Mare Frigoris direction. Hence a "+" value for "l" means the Mare Crisium limb is tipped into view. A "+" value for "b" means the Mare Frigoris limb is tipped into view. The convention that longitudes towards Mare Crisium are positive is a very old one, so no change in the way librations are stated or understood was required when the IAU reversed the meaning of "east" and "west" on the Moon...."
I wonder what could possibly stop libration of the moon? A nuke or maybe eventually it just wanders too far?

Could climate change cause tidal locking?

EDIT:
For ESWI to occur, certain conditions must be met on these planets.

The substellar point, closest to the star, cannot be underwater. Land is required for the strongly temperature-dependant weathering.

Similarly, the gas that is absorbed by weathering must be the prevalent gas in the atmosphere.

Kite notes that, even if Earth were moved to another star and became tidally locked, it would not be in danger. Though weathering on Earth consumes carbon dioxide, nitrogen makes up most of the atmosphere.

Such results are not just limited to planets that can only reveal a single face to their star.

According to Kite, "All that's really important to get this process going is a large day/night temperature contrast."

Volcanoes, such as the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in southern Iceland, can spew out huge amounts of ash and gases, altering the composition of the atmosphere. Image Copyright: Marco Fulle (Stromboli Online)

As an example, the team worked with Itay Halevy, of the Weizmann Institute of Science, to consider a Martian mystery. Mars is not tidally locked but has wide temperature variations across a Martian day. The red planet lost its atmosphere long ago, and scientists are still trying to determine exactly how that happened.
http://www.astrobio.net/exclusive/4386/ ... hospitable

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen_cycle
Human impact on the nitrogen cycle is diverse. Agricultural and industrial nitrogen (N) inputs to the environment currently exceed inputs from natural N fixation.[1] As a consequence of anthropogenic inputs, the global nitrogen cycle (Fig. 1) has been significantly altered over the past century
A 2011 study found that nitrogen from rocks may also be a significant source of nitrogen, that had not previously been included
EDIT:And the second angel poured out his vial upon the sea; and it became as the blood of a dead man: and every living soul died in the sea.

A dead man's blood doesn't move.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:41 pm
by vision
Kilarin wrote:I think what is safe to say about climate change is that BOTH sides have a political agenda and are unwilling to consider any possibility that the other side may have some points.
You are correct about both sides having an agenda. One side denies climate change and won't take any action action and the other side accepts it, but makes useless policies like Cap and Trade. Everyone loses. Their needs to be a global effort that goes beyond political posturing and money to deal with this problem (fat chance of course). Besides, it is already too late to stop the damage. The global focus must now turn to how we are going to feed and shelter everyone as critical food producing areas become unusable and current living areas become less livable. It's going to be a massive period of adjustment if we miraculously avoid ecological collapse.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 3:47 pm
by Spidey
Damn, vision…it looks to me like your brain simply sloshed from one side of the issue to the other. I have put this challenge out on this board before. (more than once, without any takers)

Prove to me, or at least make a convincing argument that…global climate change will be all bad. I have no problem with the science of this issue, but what is really pissing me off are the politics.

Less rain here…more rain there.
Encroachment of shoreline…millions of arable acreage opening up in the north.
More CO2 may mean larger crop yields, and better forest re-growth?
Lower heating bills…perhaps offset by higher cooling bills, but for not me because I don’t use air con.
Etc…

Hell, I hope the earth turns into a giant tropical jungle, so I can quit working and live off of coconuts. (kidding)

But, I do agree that water management is the key to future human survival, but then it always was. So let’s get going on those reservoirs and stop all of the bickering about who is to blame, and using scare tactics to pry open peoples wallets.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 4:38 pm
by vision
Spidey wrote:Damn, vision…it looks to me like your brain simply sloshed from one side of the issue to the other.
...
Prove to me, or at least make a convincing argument that…global climate change will be all bad. I have no problem with the science of this issue, but what is really pissing me off are the politics.
Well I wouldn't say "sloshed," as it took many years and a lot of making excuses for the things I read. I would say "slowly eroded." And yes, the politics piss me off too.

I can't prove "global climate change will be all bad" because I can't say to what extent the human race will join together to solve global problems. But seeing as we have a hard time solving local ones, I'm a bit trepid.

Like I said above, a warm planet is a good planet (generally). The speed of the warming is the scary part. No one is exactly sure what will happen, but there are good guesses ranging from "not so bad" to "catastrophe." Recent melting of Arctic sea ice made the jaws drop of even the most alarmist climatologists as we reached lows not expected to happen for another 20-30 years. So even though warming predictions are not accurate, they are definitely trending in the expected directions.

So does this mean catastrophe? I hope not, but here is one angle that bothers me. If the areas we use to grow food are shifting from one place to another, how vigorously can we adapt to that shift? If the Midwest becomes to dry to farm and better conditions are found in another part of the country, will we displace the current residents and turn that land into agricultural centers? Can we afford (financially) to make drastic changes to our infrastructure and manage a nationwide move of the agriculture industry? It's also not just about planting crops and moving herds because there is a whole ecosystem attached to farming. What if we move the crops but the bees and worms don't want to go? How will the increased frequency of low crop yields (like this years) affect food prices and the economy? Imagine this same scenario on a global scale. What if the best lands for farming move out of current countries and into others? Will neighboring countries move their borders? Will massively fluctuating food prices push the global economy to the brink and ignite world-wide conflicts? There is no way to know the answers to these questions, but you can imagine the situation might not turn out so good.

Personally, I have been convinced the planet is warming. Even if you don't think it is man-made, that doesn't change the current observations. Even if we can't stop the warming by reducing the use of fossil fuels, we will still have to deal with the reality of a warming planet. My point is not to say "you fools, global warming is real! we did it!" My point is, we need to continually revisit this discussion and revisit our personal thoughts on the matter because the risks are too great to ignore it. And I still continue to read both sides of the argument because, Jesus Christ I hope we are wrong about climate change.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:12 pm
by Spidey
Adapt and survive, I don’t know any other way to say it. Is that not supposed to be one of humanity’s strong points?

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:34 pm
by Sergeant Thorne
vision wrote:will we displace the current residents and turn that land into agricultural centers?
Bingo. Thanks for illustrating the problem with the politics. Assholes wanting to control everything. Think the world needs to be ★■◆●ing micromanaged according to your best understanding of things. You want to keep from pissing me off, think better of even ★■◆●ing going there. You know, as long as we're not ★■◆●ing our farmers over economically, farming could naturally shift to maintain profitability. People in the areas that become fertile could even take up farming in order to better themselves, and a new branch of the market could grow as the old dies off or turns into something else. America could be VERY nimble, and we don't all have to buy what Al Gore is selling for that to happen, we just have to kick the bull★■◆● bureaucracy, along with the globalist nonsense to the curb.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 5:41 pm
by flip
The trick Thorne, is to only care so much and accept the inevitable all the while spreading good :).

EDIT:No man that warreth entangleth himself with the affairs of this life; that he may please him who hath chosen him to be a soldier.

Get involved, but keep your distance.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 6:14 pm
by woodchip
flip wrote:No, the point is there is no "conclusive" proof.

EDIT: Yeah, I want to see the e-mail.
I seem to be having a problem converting the ms.doc into a pdf or some other way to get it to post here. Any help?

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 7:09 pm
by flip
Just copy/paste the text.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:05 am
by woodchip
Tried. Too big. Tried smaller section but graphs don't come thru

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:07 am
by flip
You could attach it to google docs if you have an account, that is actually fairly painless way of uploading. Thanks Isaaaaaac!

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 11:12 am
by Krom
woodchip wrote:If global warming is truly global then you would expect both poles to be melting. Since we only have the arctic experiencing warming then I'd say regional warming is occurring.
You're confusing coverage with depth or density. Satellites can only tell you how much surface area the ice covers, not how thick the ice is. Even the arctic in recent years has set some records for the coverage of ice, but it is super thin ice that melts at the end of the season. So even though it covers more area, there is still significantly less of it.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 5:25 pm
by woodchip
Krom wrote:
woodchip wrote:If global warming is truly global then you would expect both poles to be melting. Since we only have the arctic experiencing warming then I'd say regional warming is occurring.
You're confusing coverage with depth or density. Satellites can only tell you how much surface area the ice covers, not how thick the ice is. Even the arctic in recent years has set some records for the coverage of ice, but it is super thin ice that melts at the end of the season. So even though it covers more area, there is still significantly less of it.
True but in the case of Antarctica it's been gaining ice for the last 33 years at least and there was nothing about ice melting like in the Arctic. I wonder if this has anything to do with the 40k year wobble cycle?

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 6:16 pm
by vision
woodchip wrote:True but in the case of Antarctica it's been gaining ice for the last 33 years at least and there was nothing about ice melting like in the Arctic. I wonder if this has anything to do with the 40k year wobble cycle?
I really hope the whole thing is part of a big wobble and that it will be over soon. Here is some related reading from NASA, an interesting article on Antarctica's complex glaciology.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Fri Sep 21, 2012 8:37 pm
by snoopy
I haven't particularly been following the thread, so I'm going to jump around a bit on some topics:

First, TG, you seems to have some lofty thoughts about researchers. I'm skeptical. First of all, everyone's got a personal bias. Second, at this point global warming/climate change is throughly politicized, adding more bias. Third, a person's gotta eat, and eating for a researcher means grants, which mean producing results for the people with the deep pockets, which adds more bias. You might be able to find some people out there who are immune to all of these pressures... but if you think pure research for the sake of research is the norm, I've got a bridge to sell you.


Second, Has anyone seen a basic thermodynamic analysis of the world? I suppose maybe I could whip some kind of an estimate myself.... my point is this: Our power plants, cars, etc. are all producing energy... which eventually has to leave the world to reach equilibrium... how is the balance temperature (even assuming a constant efficiency by which it exits) affected by purely the extra energy that we're releasing into the atmosphere?


Third, I agree with the lines of thought that finances should primarily drive change in the form of cost savings. One of these days I'm going to be getting a new, more powerful aquarium light. When I do, I'm going 100% LED, because it'll suck less energy forever... even if the startup cost is a bit more. From a government policy standpoint, I think the priority ought to be to stimulate/encourage research into more efficient/inexpensive energies and simultaneously protect young, fledgling technologies from being squashed by entrenched technologies such as the oil industry.


Finally, I'll buy that change is happening. I'll also buy that it's hard to find a straight, honest answer on the matter. I'll even buy that human technology is playing its role in the change. What I'm not convinced about: How big is human's contribution? How far is it going to go before reaching equilibrium again? Is this really a permanent, catastrophic thing, or is it just a modification upon what is basically a natural cycle?

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:09 am
by Krom
woodchip wrote:True but in the case of Antarctica it's been gaining ice for the last 33 years at least and there was nothing about ice melting like in the Arctic.
I don't know where you heard this, but it is incorrect. The Antarctic has been shrinking/loosing mass consistently for some time and at an continually accelerating rate no less. (Read the article vision linked for example.)

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 11:55 am
by vision
Speaking of misinformation, a study was done on Fox News and the WSJ and found them to be horribly misleading on climate change. Here is a post from the Union of Concerned Scientists website (never heard of them). At the bottom of the page there is a link to a paper outlining their methodology. Scientific American has an editorial about this UCS report and says something like, "News Flash: Fox News distorts climate change and the Pope is Catholic." I lol'd a bit.

Note: I'm just as skeptical of this UCS site as any other. Their staff/board is about 50% scientists and 50% other of various backgrounds, which is probably necessary to run a non-profit like this. Overall, I'm not considering this a go-to source for anything right now, but I'll keep my eye on it.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 1:21 pm
by Jeff250
Spidey wrote:Prove to me, or at least make a convincing argument that…global climate change will be all bad. I have no problem with the science of this issue, but what is really pissing me off are the politics.

Less rain here…more rain there.
Encroachment of shoreline…millions of arable acreage opening up in the north.
More CO2 may mean larger crop yields, and better forest re-growth?
Lower heating bills…perhaps offset by higher cooling bills, but for not me because I don’t use air con.
Air conditioning is typically much more expensive than heating. But I don't think I'm knowledgeable enough to answer your question in general.

Rather, I'd like to point out that even if some countries come out even or even come out ahead, I think that there will still be some countries that will lose. Your argument I'm assuming is that if the net win is positive, we shouldn't care, but I'm worried about the countries that won't suffer as much (or that may even come out ahead) under global warming polluting at the expense of the countries that will suffer more.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:35 pm
by Top Gun
The real problem is that, by general predictions, most of the countries that will come out way behind are those that are among the poorest regions in the world. Just as one example, the majority of Bangladesh's land is somewhere within 40 feet of sea level, so even a small rise in global sea levels will potentially leave millions homeless. And you don't need to use much imagination to figure out the sort of havoc that widespread drought in Africa would cause. These countries weren't even the ones producing large amounts of CO2, but they're unfortunately going to bear the brunt of the consequences.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 2:58 pm
by Spidey
Jeff250 wrote: Your argument I'm assuming is that if the net win is positive, we shouldn't care.
How the hell did you come to that conclusion?

No, the point is more like fraud by omission, same as how the negative affects of certain programs are always ignored.

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 3:33 pm
by woodchip
Krom wrote:
woodchip wrote:True but in the case of Antarctica it's been gaining ice for the last 33 years at least and there was nothing about ice melting like in the Arctic.
I don't know where you heard this, but it is incorrect. The Antarctic has been shrinking/loosing mass consistently for some time and at an continually accelerating rate no less. (Read the article vision linked for example.)
Might want to read this Forbes article Krom:

"NPR failed to mention anywhere in its article that Antarctic sea ice has been growing since satellites first began measuring the ice 33 years ago and the sea ice has been above the 33-year average throughout 2012."

"As meteorologist Anthony Watts explains, new data show ice mass is accumulating on the Antarctic continent as well as in the ocean surrounding Antarctica. The new data contradict an assertion by global warming alarmists that the expanding Antarctic sea ice is coming at the expense of a decline in Antarctic continental ice."

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor ... er-record/

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 6:56 pm
by Krom
And you need to read what I said about density again.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/antarct ... -basic.htm

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:48 pm
by vision
Yeah, I'm not sure I'm going to trust the scientists at Forbes over the ones at NASA. Oh wait, Forbes doesn't have a climatology department.... :lol:

Did you even look at where they get their data from? The few links on that Forbes article point to some ridiculous blog called "Real Science" that misuses data collected from other sites and the "Whattsupwiththat" blog, which comes to it's own conclusion about the NASA data -- but doesn't necessarily repudiate it. And the rest of the Forbes article references NASA data, but we have seen NASA's reports on Antarctica above. So I'm not sure what you want to show us with that link.

Really, you want to trust a financial magazine for your science? Well, whatever man. :roll:

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sat Sep 22, 2012 9:59 pm
by Tunnelcat
The Arctic ice sheet isn't doing so well right now either. :wink:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Re: [Thread Split] Climate-change

Posted: Sun Sep 23, 2012 12:45 am
by Jeff250
Spidey wrote:
Jeff250 wrote:Your argument I'm assuming is that if the net win is positive, we shouldn't care.
How the hell did you come to that conclusion?

No, the point is more like fraud by omission, same as how the negative affects of certain programs are always ignored.
Then to address your original challenge as written of proving that global warming will be all bad: no one will take you up on it because obviously global warming is not all bad.